I'm a long-term follower of a distinctly ordinary news source called Earthweek: A Diary of the Planet by Steve Newman (http://www.earthweek.com). Although not comprehensive or infallible he seems to spend a lot of time finding out what's going on and saves me from searching and researching important news on the environment. I once spotted an error and he was very open to my feedback. I respect that.
I recently noticed that most of his lead items seemed to confirm the predicted exponential growth of a number of trends I've been following. On May 27, the following headline was typical: Arctic Sprouting Trees Farther North Faster Than Expected. On June 3rd he reported on a greenhouse gas surge noted by the International Energy Agency (EIA) surpassing previous records by a whopping 1.6 gigatons. Lord Stern (The Stern Report) forwarded the conclusion that "the prospects of keeping greenhouse gasses from warming global temperatures less than 3.5 degrees Fahrenheit are now becoming very bleak".
On June 10th, in an item labeled "Hot Summers Ahead" Newman reported on research concluding that "many tropical regions in Africa, Asia, and South America could see the "permanent emergence of unprecedented summer heat" in the next two decades".
And last week's report on Ocean Extinctions said, "A new report cautions that the world's oceans are undergoing changes that threaten to wipe out marine species at a far faster rate than earlier feared".
These are added to a host of other "far faster", "more extensive than", "further (or greater, more rapidly, etc.) than previously estimated". These, and other similar events seem to be early indicators of exponential climate change. Every UN IPCC reports in recent years have disclaimers that indicate rates of sea level rise may be greater than the figures in the report indicate.
The prestigious National Snow and Ice Data Center, another one of my favorite sources, participated in an important webinar yesterday regarding an important "peer-reviewed report. With contributions from 368 scientists in 48 countries, it updated many global climate indicators and examined notable weather and climate events from last year. 2010 was one of the two warmest years on record and saw a number of weather and climate extremes.
I haven't seen the rushes because it just happened but the last time I noticed one of these gatherings the scientists were all freaked out because the data on changes in the cryosphere (those are the icy places of the world) were accelerating so much that they thought they'd soon be out of a job because "their stock in trade was vanishing".
When I went to college there were no courses or majors in "sustainability". In fact, I don’t think the word was invented until 1987. It wasn't a discipline. Now any school that noticed we're not just in the 21st Century, but in the Third Millennium, has a major in sustainability.
In another few years, if the the current pace of accelerating change keeps up, cryosphere research will become history. If so, the "history" of the cryosphere will begin to be studied and documented by "Gaian" anthropologists at Penn and UCLA. That discipline may vanish before humanity realizes it's value. That extinction will rival the loss of species during this current period.
In the geological history of the Earth, there have been five periods of great natural extinction that have happened because of geological changes and huge disasters. But now, thanks to humanity's influences, the rate of species' extinction has exponentially increased to 1,000 times that of ancient period. Earth is coming into the sixth extinction period, according to Beijing Daily's report. On average, one species would disappear per hour.
According "Nature," more than 1 million species will disappear from this planet 50 years from now, and one species will be extinct per hour on average because of human activities. Of course, I won't have to worry about this because between the environment, the end of cheap oil, and the economy, I'll be long gone before it gets that bad. It is likely, according to the Department of Defense's Joint Operating Environment Report for 2010, that I'll have more company where I'm going than anyone left behind.
I admit it's possible that anyone who has the required billion or so dollars to create, supply, and defend a survival compound for a couple of decades will still be here. And they'll be the ones to repopulate whatever is left over. Thanks to landscape amnesia, their grandchildren will never notice what they lost. And that will set the stage for another go at destroying the best of the most beautiful planet we will ever know.
Fiver: A small rabbit; his Lapine name is Hrairoo, which means "Little-thousand". His visions of the destruction of the Sandleford warren lead him to leave, along with his brother Hazel and several other rabbits. His visions are almost always centered on Hazel, saving him from the snared warren and dying from a gunshot wound. He also gives Hazel a vision that inspires Hazel to set up the release of the Nuthanger Farm dog to save the Watership Down warren from General Woundwort. In the TV Series, Fiver's visions come in rhymes, and he often feels responsible for foreseeing terrible things, blaming himself for their outcome.
Wednesday, June 29, 2011
Saturday, June 25, 2011
LIVING AS IF WE REALLY UNDERSTAND GLOBAL WARMING
Environmentalists who often complain about business' and governments trashing the environment rarely talk much about the stuff they themselves are doing to lessen their impact on Mother Earth. Sure, we're all doing something but are we doing enough? Are we living as if we really understand just how serious our situation is?
The 2007 Nobel Peace Prize was awarded to Al Gore and the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. "We face a true planetary emergency," said Gore, who called the climate crisis "a moral and spiritual challenge". And, although an environmentalist, he got the Peace Prize because humanity is already experiencing resource wars for oil, water, and arable land. Are environmentalists contributing to those problems?
Sea-level rise is probably the most disastrous effect of global warming. 2007's summer Arctic ice melting inspired a New York Times headline: "A Melt So Vast and Rapid It Unnerved the Experts." Scientists, once skeptical of cataclysmic melting, are "much more open to the idea that we may have passed the point where it's becoming essentially irreversible".
That condition occurred and was reported in the NSIDC Monthly Highlights for August 2009. Mark Serreze, with NSIDC colleagues Julienne Stroeve, Andrew Barrett, David Kindig, and Andrew Slater, analyzed observations and model simulations to look for the signals of Arctic amplification. Their conclusion: it has arrived."
NOAA's Arctic Report Card for 2010 confirmed that Record high temperatures across Canadian Arctic and Greenland, a reduced summer sea ice cover, record snow cover decreases and links to some Northern Hemisphere weather support this conclusion. "
We often ignore the connection between the environment, energy, and the economy. However, it can be easily argued that any waste of energy is fiscally irresponsible. With the age of cheap oil over, and the economy in the worst shape since the 1929 Great Depression, energy waste can also be called "insane". The massive amount of waste in western culture, especially in North America, is so ubiquitous that many will foolishly argue that waste is minimal and will always be present. To those who know better it sounds eerily like the denial of addicts and alcoholics trying to defend their insanity.
"Here we have a serious problem: America is addicted to oil."
-- (President George W. Bush, State of the Union, January 31, 2006.) Serious, indeed! It is serious enough to potentially make life in 2050 unrecognizeable to adults who are alive today. If there was ever need for the "Precautionary Principal" to be made into universal law, it is now. (http://www.sehn.org/precaution.html)
What will it take for those of us who notice these historic earth changes to make appropriate lifestyle changes? Does the seashore have to move to Philadelphia and Washington, DC, and swamp lower Manhatten before we take serious action? If the power of example is as effective as studies suggest, dear reader, your personal response to climate change and peak oil is an essential part of the solution. And ending cognitive dissonance is essential to a well-balanced mind.
Now that we know how thin the ice we're on is, stepping out of the problem requires knowing exactly where we stand. Who is up-to-date on the news of this extraordinary situation? Important energy and climate news is often absent from US sources. The Energy Bulletin regularly gathers the latest energy news (file://localhost/ttp/::www.energybulletin.net:) The BBC (at http://www.bbcamerica.com with links to the IPCC, the Stern Report, and the Hirsch Report on the economics of climate change, consistently does a better job than most US news sources. For online eco-news Grist does a good job at http://www.grist.org. There are many other fine sources but if you want to be reassured by the great denial machine, go to: http://www.foxnews.com/.
Few among us know how much CO2 we put into the air and fewer know how to calculate their carbon footprint. The folks at NativeEnergy do and you can access their calculator online at http://www.nativeenergy.com. They even sell carbon credits, the environmental version of indulgences. The Sierra Club has published a report on the top CO2 and energy use calculators in their magazine. (I don't have that link, but you can rate a host of them collected by Squidoo http://www.squidoo.com/carboncalcs who posted 80 of them in September of 2009.)
After finding out how many renewable energy credits you'll need to offset your footprint you can log on to http://www.powerscorecard.org or http://www.GoCleanEnergy.comto compare the products offered by the various electricity providers. Then, you can choose a provider and sign up. It's relatively inexpensive and good for relieving any guilt feelings that occur after calculating your carbon footprint.
You can reduce your footprint by choosing energy-efficient appliances. The American Council For an Energy Efficient Economy (http://www.aceee.org), and Consumer's Union (http://www.consumerreports.org) can help with that. They have some of the latest information on energy efficient appliances and techniques. The U.S. government does a pretty good job with their Energy Star program (and a new water saver program) athttp://www.energystar.gov
You can reduce your footprint by choosing energy-efficient appliances. The American Council For an Energy Efficient Economy (http://www.aceee.org), and Consumer's Union (http://www.consumerreports.org) can help with that. They have some of the latest information on energy efficient appliances and techniques. The U.S. government does a pretty good job with their Energy Star program (and a new water saver program) athttp://www.energystar.gov
If you are only ready to do one thing give up eating red meat. In "Diet For a New America", author Jon Robbins shows how this is the single best way to live lightly on planet Earth at http://www.foodrevolution.org/.
Getting rid of our gas hog and replacing it with a high-mileage car will help when gasoline hits $10 a gallon. With oil hovering around $100 a barrel and gasoline hitting $4 a gallon for the second time in three years, this will be sooner than later. At least we'll be able to afford the drive to the grocery store. Our media ignores peak oil stories but you can Google them online at http://news.google.com/news/search?aq=3&pz=1&cf=all&ned=us&hl=en&q=peak+oil+news&oq=peak+oil. The gas money you save may help you afford the groceries.
Another simple step to be part of the solution is replacing our incandescent light bulbs with highly efficient compact fluorescent (CFL) light bulbs. Lighting can be as much as 20% of our household energy bill and incandescent bulbs waste 70% of that. CFL's have become easily available and many are priced well under a dollar.
Although California has already outlawed the manufacture and sale of incandescent light bulbs, the federal government will be outlawing the 100 watt lamp by 2012, with the rest following in fairly quick succession.
Another simple step is turning down the thermostat a bit in the winter and up in the summer. Turn it down more when you leave the house. A good digital seven-day programmable thermostat, such as the ones Consumer Reports rated "best buy" (http://www.luxproducts.com/thermostatscan help. If you or the kids can't remember to turn off the lights when leaving the room occupancy sensors will also help.
Once you've done this much you will likely discover what to do next. You're now an example to others and part of a growing legion of earth-friendly Americans who are making the exponential shift to sustainable living.
There are many occasions besides the winter holiday season when gifting is appropriate and traditional. Why not give gifts that keep on giving? A compact fluorescent light bulb can save the user as much as $75 over the life of the bulb. Not bad for something that often costs less than $1.
LED holiday lights use a tenth of the energy consumed by conventional ones and are available from http://www.gaiam.com/realgoods. In fact, since LED lamps are becoming more affordable, their 90 percent reduction in energy use is a must for lights that are on for much of the time. Be sure to purchase good quality lamps because there are a lot of cheap ones on the market that have burned out in months instead of the 50,000 to 80,000 hours that well made LED's are rated at. In 2011, the CREE Lighting Company was one of the standards for commercial and some residential lighting http://www.creeledlighting.com/ but the majors, like Phillips, Sylvania, GE, are putting out moderately priced quality LED lamps.
Those of living in certain areas of the country can take advantage of government sponsored home energy efficiency programs. A whole house systems approach offers the best chance for large savings. With between fifty and ninety percent of the energy used in North America wasted for lack of efficiency and conservation the average homeowner can save more than $1,200 a year. In the Delaware Valley, the Metropolitan Caucus, which covers the five county region including Philadelphia, has initiated a program that offers up to $15,000 for home energy retrofits and improvements with unsecured loans at under one percent interest. More information is available at: ecasavesenergy.org/energyworks.
With all of these measures you might even save enough to splurge on a couple of bottles of 2002 vintage Dom Perignon champagne for News Years Eve or another special occasion. That's at http://www.moet.com; enjoy!
By Larry Menkes © 2011
Friday, June 24, 2011
A Plan to Prevent (Some) Wars
I wrote the first draft of this a few years earlier than '03 to help a local Green Party candidate form his energy policy. It's still relevant today and has been echoed by some more popular writers than I. There's a great cover story that carries this idea forward in the June 27 (2011) edition of Newsweek. Go to: ttp://www.newsweek.com/2011/06/19/it-s-still-the-economy-stupid.html
THIS IS A PLAN TO HELP PREVENT SOME WARS
2/23/03
I have a plan to prevent and/or end some wars (and U.S. temptations to dominate weaker oil rich countries). It is based on proven research that demonstrates that if Americans employ most of the energy efficient devices and tactics available today, it would do more than end our need for any foreign oil or exploiting new domestic sources. It starts with 3 simple steps.
It tried this with my family and my home and it’s doable. Quite a number of my friends are now doing it. I know of others who are doing it or already have done it. Businesses and institutions that I’m connected with are doing it. It makes so much sense that eventually it could involve almost everyone in America. It isn't an instant thing except in places closest to your home and mine. But it can work.
It saves everyone involved well over half of his or her current energy bills. (It frees up money for making more protest signs and the use of mass transportation to get to demonstrations. It involves starting with putting some of our money where our mouths are, and walking our talk. For some of us it may represent a different way of taking action than we’re used to, so it may involve a slight change of habits. But, it’s easy enough to get started today, right now, and it shouldn't hurt.
Step 1. Count the number of incandescent light bulbs in your homes and businesses, churches, mosques, synagogues, clubhouses, organizations, etc. Note the wattage and replace them as fast as you can afford with comparable compact fluorescent light bulbs. (It’s not necessary to pay more than $5 per bulb except for dim-able bulbs, 3-ways and 150 watt equivalent bulbs.)
When you are finished say, "I am now using and paying for 75% less electricity for lighting than I was, and I'm only causing 1/4 of the air pollution associated with the electrical generation". You can add, "I will not have to replace these bulbs until the time after 10 of the old fashioned bulbs would have burned out." You can also add, "I'll get the money back for the additional costs of these new bulbs within about a year but I'm helping the environment right away." (You might be able to confirm the money part by reviewing at least one year's worth of your past electric bills and doing a comparison.)
In 2011 the new strategy is to use LED lamps. A bit more expensive than CFL's, they save 90% of the electricity they use and by the time you have to replace them (assuming you bought good brand-name lamps and not cheap knock-offs) you won't be able to remember what year you installed the original. There is a liquid fuel savings for doing this but a lighting retrofit is good for improving air quality and reducing the pace of climate change.
If you want to go a bit further, put occupancy sensors on light switches in rooms where people have a habit of leaving unneeded lights on. (If you want to go a step further, replace any older style straight fluorescent fixtures with T-8 or T-5 units and reap an additional 30% savings there.)
Step 2. Tell everyone you know that you are doing this and why. Ask them if they'd be willing to do the same. Give bulbs to friends and family for presents. Note that for every incandescent bulb we Americans collectively replace with (LED's) a compact fluorescent bulb, one large American power plant can be taken off line. I found 32 bulbs in my house, many of which are on for more than 4 hours a day.
Step 3. Check your gas mileage in your vehicle and compare it to the gas mileage of today's most efficient vehicles. Depending on how close yours is to what it could be, make that much of a commitment to replace your current vehicle with one of the ones that get top mileage. Base your decision on when to replace it by the difference between the two and the number of miles a year that you drive. If you drive less than 5000 miles, it doesn't matter very much. 5000 miles a year comes to less than 11 miles a day so you might be able to skip this step. If you drive over 15,000/year you might want to get a super efficient car ASAP. (If your car is not getting the gas mileage it’s supposed to get, tune up the engine.) You can now get a combined $3500 PA/US tax rebate for SULEV vehicles like hybrid cars. (NO longer valid: new incentives exist - see: www.dsire.org for current info.)
Since that time, we got a Honda Civic hybrid: my wife commutes 46 miles a day, round trip. After more than 100,000 miles we saved a lot of gas and GHG emissions. The money, at $4 a gallon has more than paid back the slight extra cost for the car and we did get rebates and tax credits that helped. It's also fun to get better than 45 mpg on road trips to see family in Ephrata, PA and Waynesboro, VA.
After you have done all that you can say, I have done a lot to change my behavior and made a good start toward saving energy, a lot to prevent war, and a lot to help the environment. You coulsd also say, I'm saving quite a bit of money, and that feels pretty good.
If you have made a commitment to do all this and want to do more, get the book, HomeMade Money (by Richard Heede and the Staff at Rocky Mountain Institute- www.rmi.org). It can tell you how to cut your home and business energy costs further. (there are better books out there today, along with some great online and TV resources.)
If you are still motivated to do more, and you are making good progress on your own work, I invite you to contact me and I'll suggest effective, easy, proven ways to get the rest of your town moving on this project. Or, maybe by then you'll have already figured it out.
Larry Menkes
Coordinator: 3rd Millennium Project at Pebble Hill Church and
Earth Charter Initiative working group on Energy and Climate
www.earthchartercitizens.org (now: Alliance for a Sustainable Future)
www.libertynet.org/pebble (3rd Millennium Project) (dead link, don't try it)
I can be reached at: mailto:larry@sustainabletransitions.us and (215) 328-9128
Additional useful links and sources of my data, etc.
Thursday, June 16, 2011
Meditation on a Black Swan
MEDITATION ON A BLACK SWAN
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| See "Images" at Google:"Black Swan" I'll insert my | original as soon as I learn how. |
Few Americans have ever seen a Black Swan (Cygnus astratus) and more than a few might say there's no such thing. With the publication of Nassim Taleb's classic book of the same name the term leapt into our common language http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com. Its greatest contribution outside of economics may be as a metaphor for the environmental and sustainability movement.
As a topic of concern in a spiritual community, environmentalism is noticeable but hasn't hit stride. Generally, faith communities have yet to take up the banner of sustainable living. Issues of doctrine, economics, justice, power, and more vie for attention from leaders and congregants.
Since sustainability is metaphorically a Black Swan in North American culture it's understandable that it doesn't rank high on the list of concerns of most congregations. Bill McKibben, a prominent Methodist, leading activist, and environmental writer (Eaarth, The End of Nature, etc.) recently said, " So far climate change hasn't been a central concern of any faith communities, but that may be starting to change."
I've had the opportunity interact with a number of churches and faiths as an energy consultant and haven't seen much evidence of that change. From the perspective of an energy auditor it's easy to notice that virtually every one of their buildings waste a lot of energy whatever values they espouse. I'm not surprised since no one alive has ever witnessed the collapse of a global civilization. Yes, we've heard about Easter Island, the Incas, and the Anasazi, but we're still here, aren't we?
Although there don't seem to be more than about a million environmental deaths a year we're still here. And, given the deaths of roughly eleven million children a year from easily preventable diseases, another million from environmental causes is (I cringe to say) a drop in the bucket.
But those familiar with climate science and exponential math see evidence that our global civilization is like a "dead man walking". It may take divine intervention to get the planet and humanity out of this mess unscathed. McKibben's assessment forces us to ask, "If the world's religions act together, will it be in time to prevent the worst of the predicted calamities?"
Of course, there isn't much evidence that level of cooperation has ever occurred. Of course, there's no order of difficulty in miracles. With over ninety percent of American's expressing a belief in a higher power and around forty percent claiming to go to church regularly, the ability of organized spiritual groups to influence cultural behavior seems great. As evidence, look at the influence in religion on population control. Population is the gigantosaurus in our global living room. Anyway, there will soon be seven billion of us in the global bucket.
No one knows for sure what the carrying capacity of Earth is, since there are many variables. The primitive carrying capacity is different from an industrialized civilization's carrying capacity. Some estimates place it as low as two billion humans. Since humanity is arguably in "overshoot", there will likely be the usual die-off that species in overshoot experience. For a while, the body bag and funeral industry will experience exponential growth and prosperity.
It seems noteworthy and illogical that cooperation between the faiths hasn't already occurred since sustainability may be the core issue facing religion and humanity today, Logic is not a strong suite in many faiths. Just because most of us, especially around the Northeastern United States, are ignorant of the precariousness of our global situation and of survival prospects of our species is doesn't make it untrue.
The Empty Bell, a publication dedicated to Christian/Buddhist dialogue says, "At this moment in history there are many arenas of unnecessary suffering and justice that call for the focused attention of Christian contemplatives. None are more important than the pressing reality of global climate change. If we destroy life on our planet home, we have destroyed the context for all arenas of justice-making."
The Black Swan of a perfect storm of crises, of environment, energy, water, and the economy, places us in a deciding role in the future of the species. The way we live today and tomorrow will determine the outcome. We've squandered the best part of a quarter century ignoring warnings and words to the wise. As a species we've basically ignored them. Though it's easy to shift blame to big polluters and global corporations we're all responsible. It's only a matter of scale.
It's an accepted fact among energy specialists that between fifty and ninety percent of all the energy we use is wasted by lack of efficiency and conservation. That means more than half of our greenhouse gas emissions can be profitably eliminated.
There's the possibility of a real shift if merely a third of Americans, those who are among the regular churchgoers - ostensibly the most pious and spiritual among us - eliminated that waste. It wouldn't be the end of the problem, but it'd be a good start. It may be enough to buy humanity time for more comprehensive solutions.
Aside from an alien invasion, if ever there was a crisis that could unite all faiths, all nations, and all peoples, saving our collective environment (i.e. our collective butts) is the one. What holds us back? What are we waiting for? Has our species become psychotic?
Do the faithful have the faith, the spiritual will, and the courage to save humanity? It shouldn't be that hard to change our behavior when our children and grandchildren's futures hang in the balance. This is especially true when it's so profitable to root out our personal energy waste.
McKibben told me, "I'd point out that the place we really need interfaith action is less in retrofitting churches than in strong political involvement. We're getting a lot of that at 350.org, thank heaven!"
Now that you've seen the Black Swan, it cannot be denied. As the Elders Oraibi of the Arizona Hopi Nation said over a decade ago, "We are the ones we've been waiting for". (http://www.spiritofmaat.com/messages/oct28/hopi.htm)
By our works will we be known, and remembered.
Our epitaphs are being written by our actions today.
What will they say?
Saturday, June 4, 2011
Pulling the "D" ring"
Fiver's second blog:
A few days ago I went to Carpenter's Hall in Philadelphia to experience the latest Delaware Valley Green Building Council's presentation on the latest green building standards. The presenter, Laura Blau, called it Apples to Apples and did a quick comparison of three of the best of the high-performance building standards now on the market. They were the USGBC's LEED standards[1] They were compared to Passive House[2], and the very stringent Living Building Challenge[3].
At the discussion after the powerpoint presentations I was able to ask the the panel the first question. That was, "Why are we concerned with high performance building?" The answer o0f course was that the environment demanded it. That answer mentioned the idea that "green building" was so radical at the time it could only gain influence if introduced incrementally in the United States.
The standards too were becoming incrementally more strict as each evolved. I was reminded of Sam Walton's quote on incremental change but I didn't get the last question in. I wanted to ask, "Do we have time for incremental change?"
Unsurprisingly Sam Walton once espoused incremental change[4] but according to Hunter Lovins, Walton now says, "The time for incremental change has passed. What we need is a revolution". If it comes, will it come in time?
I had taken the train in to Philly and had time to read a recent issue of Newsweek. Sharon Begley's cover story title was superimposed on the picture of a tornado. It read, "Weather Panic: This is the new normal (and we're hopelessly unprepared"). I come from a scouting and disaster planning background and I wondered how we could become prepared.
Given what I've learned about the triple threat of Environment, Energy, and the economy, it would certainly require a comprehensive and rapid approach if we hope to stop our slide off the edge of what we call normal today. I don't see that happening. I suspect there is a wishful thought among most Americans and many Europeans, that with some luck everything will return to what we used to call normal or at least stabilize where we are now.
At least one European, James Lovelock, arguably one of the best climate scientists alive today, has long said that it's too late. In a Guardian interview about a year ago he said, "Humans are too stupid to prevent climate change.[5]" Since another years worth of data continues to confirm that climate change is already happening he seems to be spot on. They even made an interesting movie about that called "The Age of Stupid"[6].
I've occasionally been asked how it must feel to be stupid. Since I only got serious about preparing for climate change just before the millennium I admit that it feels in turns pretty much like I feel now; sad, ashamed, angry, and hurt. I also feel happy that I've made progress in making my home sustainable and that the end has yet to come. But that last part may be an illusion. Anyway, I don't think about it much since I'm busy doing the best I can to be part of the solution, even if that outcome turns out to be another illusion. As yet, there is no way to know[7].
I haven't met anyone familiar with the data that believes that a completely comprehensive and rapid approach to prevention is in the works. I think that mitigation may be a better strategy. It will likely take disasters greater, and/or more frequent than what's already happened to cause enough of a perception shift to get enough people to demand that we begin to focus on this perfect storm of storms. It's not just the climate, but also energy[8], and the economy[9] that's in danger. And help from the top won't come soon.
According to Vicky Arroyo, executive director of the Georgetown Climate Center[10] "There are no true adaptation experts in the federal government, let alone states or cities." Yet, Van Jones[11], and others know that energy efficiency, conservation, and intelligent consumption constitute a viable bridge strategy[12]. A comprehensive program can help the environment, the economy, and social equity. Carbon neutral and net zero buildings could be a significant part of any adaptation strategy.
It deserves mentioning that what we now see of climate change is a reaction to what has happened roughly two decades ago[13]. Climate reaction isn't like getting hit by a bus. It's more like jumping out of a high-flying airplane. Having done a bit of "leaping" I can report that there is almost no feeling of falling. However, it's inescapable that there are limits to how long the fall will last and a well-known consequence for not using a parachute.
According to the Pew Center for Global Climate Change's Judi Greenwald, "You can no longer say that the climate of the future is going to be like the climate of today, let alone yesterday. In all of the plausible climate scenarios we are going to have to change the way we do things in ways we can't even predict."[14]
Our civilization has been flying pretty high on cheap fossil fuel, cheaper buildings, a relatively stable climate, and exponential growth[15]. If you were busy shopping online or picking your nose when you fell out of the plane you might be able continue those activities for a while before you noticed that something was different, maybe even wrong. If you could still see the horizon when you noticed this you might think everything was fine and go back to what you were doing.
Ground rush is a phenomenon that is only noticeable near the end of the fall. The best definition I've ever found is in the first paragraphs of an essay called "Ground Rush"[16]. Although a bit Christian and preachy, it captures well the experience of ground rush. Tim Chambers' eschatological opening question "How long does a skydiver have to open his parachute?" is funny. It would be more accurate if the answer added ("Almost") the rest of his life". If he was legit he would have mentioned that it would be better to pull the "D" ring and open the main 'chute above 2000 feet, not 500 where the reserve 'chute would barely have enough time to open to prevent crashing and burning[17]. I guess this holds true when going down the Rabbit Hole.
Chambers wrote that apocalyptic piece in 1996 in anticipation of millennial end-times. If there is such a thing, it could conceivably unfold in just this way[18].
Since Jacqui has arrived home for dinner and I'm hungry, I'll try to wrap this up by saying that I'm doing my part to get my parachute ready for the last thousand feet, and my body positioned to deploy it properly.
Wouldn't it be nice if our leaders were like jump-masters? They could have ordered or cajoled us into become well prepared and practiced for emergencies. We can fly our bodies and blow our minds but it's irrelevant if we don't live to tell the tale. Otherwise it's just another form of suicide. Note that the word the word "ecocide"[19] entered the American Heritage Dictionary well over a decade ago, just before the millennium[20].
I'm not sure where the horizon is at the moment, it's pretty hazy and hard to tell where the sky ends. Anyway, I had a nice nap on the way down and only know that the gauges say that we're getting close to the ground. I'm too scared to look and, anyway, too busy making the right moves to get my parachute open and working properly.
Auf wiedersehen; hope to see you on the "pea"[21][22].
1280 words
[1] (Actually four graduated certifications - and the acronym stands for Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design http://www.usgbc.org/DisplayPage.aspx?CMSPageID=1988).
[7] Caught between complacency and despair E. F. Schumacher thought it advisable "to leave these perplexities behind us and get down to work" http://www.davidworr.com/more.php?articleid=17
| e-co-cide n. Heedless or deliberate destruction of the natural environment, as by pollutants or an act of war. |
The American Heritage® Dictionary of the English Language, Fourth Edition copyright ©2000 by Houghton Mifflin Company. Updated in 2009. Published by Houghton Mifflin Company.
[22] Skydive Terminology: Peas - Pea gravel, used in the landing area as a target ...http://www.kturby.com/skydive/terms.htm
Fiver: A small rabbit; his Lapine name is Hrairoo, which means "Little-thousand". His visions of the destruction of the Sandleford warren lead him to leave, along with his brother Hazel and several other rabbits. His visions are almost always centered on Hazel, saving him from the snared warren and dying from a gunshot wound. He also gives Hazel a vision that inspires Hazel to set up the release of the Nuthanger Farm dog to save the Watership Down warren from General Woundwort. In the TV Series, Fiver's visions come in rhymes, and he often feels responsible for foreseeing terrible things, blaming himself for their outcome.
Memorial Day Reflections
6/4
There's nothing like taking a decent road trip over a holiday weekend, like Memorial Day, to reflect and catch up on some blogging. We went from Bucks County, PA, where gasoline was selling for $3.75 at one local station, and we got a $3.79 fillup without going out of our way. That was quite a relief from the $4 plus prices we saw in the previous weeks. We got to Waynesboro, Virginia late Saturday evening where gas prices seemed to be a bargain at $3.55 a gallon.
On the way home, we bought gasoline for $3.49 in Waynesboro. We had seen a few signs at that price off route 81 on the way south. We noticed that prices near the highway were as much as twenty cents higher than they were just a mile off the road. Don't blame that on the speculators. By the way, prices off the road at the cheap stations we saw when coming south were now about a dime higher now that we were on the way home.
I saw this phenomenon when I was a truck driver. It's hard to count on prices staying the same even for a day. It makes me wish for a transparent world where I wouldn't be manipulated by people who take advantage of their special knowledge. I like the internet for that, and CB radios. Of course, CB radios often require the user to put up with a lot of inane chatter to get the nuggets like, "there's cheap diesel another five miles up the road", or "there's an accident in the Southbound lanes but the gaper-block is only a couple of minutes on the opposite side". There are parts of the big-brother thing that I really like.
As a Vietnam War veteran (USMM 1967) I have mixed emotions on Memorial Day weekend and prefer to think of it as a nice three or four day weekend and look forward to spending it with in-laws who I miss and rarely get to see.
Dennis, my brother-in-law, was considering moving to the San Diego area of California because the people there are more open and tolerant, even welcoming of diverse views. I can sympathize with that since I occasionally lapse into feeling lonely for company of my own kind. San Diego is also a bit more than 85 feet above see level and a one meter rise supposedly won't cause any homes to be lost. (http://globalfloodmap.org/)
I countered by mentioning the advantages of being on home turf when trying to make local changes and improvements. I don't know what's the best choice but homies seem to have a political advantage. I notice that on my Environmental Advisory Council where the guys who went to high school in town form a seemingly impenetrable clique. But, I've been here almost 15 years and I'm not planning to leave before I die, so that gives me some muscle, especially with that majority who moved here (many from Philly) during the great rush to "sprawl".
I've been the outsider in Miami, and in Fairfield County Connecticut, where I lived for 18 years. Only the families that could trace some DAR history in their ancestry had any real advantage there, unless they were millionaires. It's OK that my parents came in through Ellis Island at the turn of the last century. I'm not a native American and believe that they have first claim to complain about the europeans and other invaders and settlers.
The things I'd like to change most (aside from having everyone being well educated and tolerant) are things that will make ours a sustainable society. That seems to be the universal necessity if my grandchildren (and yours) are to have any hope. I notice that I'm no longer saying, "hope of a better future". I think a recognizable future will be sufficiently acceptable for now.
By the way, if you haven't taken "The Crash Course" you won't have much of a chance to recognize the future, let alone have a chance to make it any better than say,
"Hell in a handbasket". The Crash Course is at http://www.chrismartenson.com. I can't say that you'll love it, but it's pretty damn good for one person's vision. If you haven't given this idea much thought, it may be time to consider the thoughts on this from someone who has, and has done it brilliantly.
Those of us who once wanted to leave this world a better place for our children might want to seriously consider where we're starting in from in 2011before plotting a new course.
p.s.
Thanks for putting up with my first attempts at blogging. I'll get the hang of how to do this well sometime later this year. I'm just delighted to see the words up on the screen for now. I've courted a major mistake with each post as I fumble around with this.
Fiver's First Blog: Blessings and Curses
3/2/11
It's both a blessing and a curse for the curious to come to know the future. When my Green Party friend, Ed, invited me to see the movie Split Estate I attended thinking it would deepen my understanding of peak oil. The blessing was that it did. The curse was that I wasn't expecting how that occurred.
My spiritual practice teaches me not to assume anything. I have found that tenet most challenging; worse now because I'm now aware that an expectation is an assumption about some aspect of the future. I recently heard that an expectation is also a premeditated resentment. I hate to admit the truth of that. I think I'll understand it better in the coming years… unless I don't.
As the coordinator of the Post Carbon Institute's first Relocalization Outpost in Pennsylvania, a trained Transition facilitator, and a member of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas (ASPO) I've had my ears licked clean. Knowledge of the future is very exciting and seductive these days, especially for a recovering adrenalin junkie like me. But it's led me to deep concerns for my grandchildren. This is as much a painful haunting as it is a curse.
In the process of coming to terms with what may well be the greatest crisis that humanity has faced since the last ice age, I have to continually remind myself that I didn't cause this perfect storm of crises. I certainly can't control the issues that could lead to the end of civilization (as we know it). And by myself, even my single-handed sailor self, I can't cure it.
Although I can't abandon the cause I'd sure like a lot more support. But that's just another story, because the universe is most probably unfolding just as it should. It's certainly unfolding as it will, and I haven't had a proper vacation in a long time. Another story I'm running is that it would be more fun to be dedicated to sailing somewhere warm than to an exciting, essential, and terrifying cause.
It's a blessing to know that there is hope, in spite of the fact that I, and most of humanity, waited too long to react to this perfect storm of peak oil, global climate change, and a Black Swan economic crisis of biblical proportions,. Now that I've written this, I'm free of the curse of suffering over some dumb story I could make up over a catastrophic outcome. For the truth (if there is any) is that I cannot see the outcome, and that Transition Cheltenham's Bill Mettler's unbridled optimism is the best possible attitude to have in this situation, even if it sometimes seems like one of his Quiet Riot acts.
Part of Cassandra's curse, aside from not being believed, was caring about the people and creatures. It is they who will have to live in less than the best of all possible worlds. Of course, it's doubtful that anyone finds this the best of all possible worlds. Only the deluded, the very rich , and the criminally insane would agree that it is. Although it may well be that many of the criminally insane would notice how far we are from that more perfect world.
Aside from reading John Naisbitt's trendy tea leaves, it's both a blessing and curse to see a possible Eden-like future that could only come about if a large number of us care to make it happen. Creating that vision is a task for the many not the few. It is harder work than bailing a leaky boat in wracking seas, but probably the most exciting and satisfying creative task that ever awaited mankind.
So, if we all contribute the best part of the most positive vision we could have and create a future too wonderful to ignore, we can do it. In the crock pot in which that vision simmers and slowly cooks something may emerge beyond our wildest dreams for a utopia we may never know. But, for the children, we must begin to do it and to build. Another blessing, and a curse.
Humanity has nearly always sought to take what is and, in Rube Goldberg fashion, tack on corrections as if something small was wrong. What a contraption we have wrought. It's really a house of cards.
The other flaw about that approach is that ours is not a material universe. In material worlds there is a limit to correction before the contraption collapses. In our quantum world, one creates a future out of whole cloth, new, and unsullied. With that kind of material and a compelling vision we can find the excitement and energy to create a far better world for the children, and by extension, for us.
I may never set foot in that world. But it would be enough for me to see it, if I knew the children would get there. Perhaps this is the real story of the wandering. For me, it's the ultimate blessing. I may never see it, even from across the river, but I'm willing to take that journey for the sake of the children and everything that I love.
Fiver: A small rabbit; his Lapine name is Hrairoo, which means "Little-thousand". His visions of the destruction of the Sandleford warren lead him to leave, along with his brother Hazel and several other rabbits. His visions are almost always centered on Hazel, saving him from the snared warren and dying from a gunshot wound. He also gives Hazel a vision that inspires Hazel to set up the release of the Nuthanger Farm dog to save the Watership Down warren from General Woundwort. In the TV Series, Fiver's visions come in rhymes, and he often feels responsible for foreseeing terrible things, blaming himself for their outcome.
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