After completing the first work day in 2011 on far too little sleep, there are a few thoughts dogging me as I reflect on where we've been and where we're heading, globally and locally. Being congenitally loquacious, I'm forced toward brevity.
First of all, the environment. Isn't that why real really concerned, if not obsessed with green building? The Economist: Dec 3, 2010 ... Each of the last ten years features in the top 11 warmest years... 2009: NSIDC announces that Arctic Amplification has occurred. Last year, an ice shelf four times the size of Manhatten broke loose from Greenland, where it was holding back land-bound ice capable of a 27 foot of sea level rise. (The NE US is more susceptible to sea level rise than most other parts of the US.) Two eminent scientists Martin Rees, and Frank Fenner joined the growing ranks of those who have concluded humanity has passed the tipping point and we must now both prepare for some certain catastrophe while trying to avoid the worst. We've seen the largest US environmental catastrophe unfold in the Gulf of Mexico, already reeling from the effects of Katrina, Rita, and US inability to manage disasters on that level. Of course, the summer spill rivals, but won't surpass the spills occurring in Nigeria. A full third of Pakistan was flooded in July and August creating more than 21 million homeless people and killing nearly 2000.
Then there's energy: As we rang in the new year the AP's Chris Kahn said "Oil's surge paves way for $4 gas." According to many energy insiders, the last run to three digit crude pricked the housing bubble and triggered what some call the Great Recession" and others call it something far worse, and without precedence. (See the Crash Course at www.chrismartenson.com) What might it do this time around? Admiral Larry Rice, who oversaw the DoD's Joint Operating Environment 2010 Report, told this year's ASPO US's Annual Conference that the authors don't understand why "the nations leaders don't act like their hair's on fire after reading it". The US Navy gets it and is on track to make half of their shore facilities net zero by 2015. The JOE 2010 predicts the end of spare oil capacity in 2012 and by 2015, as much as a 10 million barrel a day shortfall in supplies as Peak Oil drops supplies and the BRIC leads a demand surge that will signal something I don't wish to name publicly. The end of the era of cheap oil will be as unpredictable as it is unprecedented. And, it'll likely be uncomfortable.
I'm reminded of the events in Europe in the 1930's when prescient groups of Jews, Catholics, and others saw the value in flight and got out of the reach of the Third Reich while the gitten' was good. As many as 11 million didn't get the message, chose to ignore it, or went sailing on De Nial. This time around, it will take more than all of us who have an inkling of danger today to turn this ship from going over Victoria Falls.
So, what to do? That's why you're in this, isn't it? If I wasn't committed to brushing my teeth by 2330 I'd be tempted to make some suggestions, but who knows better than you what you can do if you took all this seriously. So, just do it!
